Decision Journal

♠Log a decision

"In retrospect, every decision looked obvious. But before you knew the outcome, it didn't. Write down what you were thinking when you only had what you had."

Date when did you make this decision? The decision in one sentence What you decided + what you decided AGAINST Why the actual reasoning, not the post-hoc story What you're predicting will happen The chip · how confident? be honest — calibration only works if you're honest

Review date when can you tell how it turned out? Tag (optional)

♥Showing your hand

♦All your bets

♣Your calibration

When you said 70%, were you right ~70% of the time? Compare confidence vs actual hit rate across reviewed decisions.

♣The calibration chart

Each dot is one confidence bucket. The diagonal is perfect calibration. Above the line = underconfident. Below = overconfident.

♠Log a decision

♥Showing your hand

♦All your bets

♣Your calibration

♣The calibration chart

♣By confidence bucket

♣By tag

♠Manage the table